Comparative Analysis of the Financial Feasibility of Electric and Diesel BRT Buses in Medan (Merdeka Square–Tembung)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.70716/reswara.v4i4.917Keywords:
electric buses, diesel buses, financial feasibility, bus rapid transit, sensitivity analysisAbstract
Public transport electrification offers energy efficiency and emission reductions but requires a substantially higher initial investment than conventional diesel technology. This study evaluates the financial feasibility of electric versus diesel buses on Medan BRT Corridor 5 (Lapangan Merdeka–Tembung) from the operator's perspective. A 12-year discounted cash-flow model was employed using Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Payback Period (PP). Operational inputs comprised eight buses, an annual fleet mileage of 735,840 km, a flat fare of IDR 5,000 per passenger, and a projected demand growth of 6% per annum. Electric bus CAPEX reached IDR 37.952 billion—136.37% higher than diesel—whereas its annual OPEX was IDR 4.247 billion, representing a 21.41% reduction. Under a full CAPEX–OPEX burden, neither option was financially viable, yielding negative NPVs of −IDR 23.998 billion for diesel and −IDR 37.423 billion for electric buses. However, under a CAPEX subsidy scheme, the electric bus became feasible with an NPV of IDR 685.91 million and an IRR of 13.00%. The Buy-the-Service (BTS) framework rendered both technologies feasible, though diesel yielded higher financial returns. Sensitivity analysis confirmed load factor as the most critical determinant. Therefore, successful electric BRT deployment requires structured CAPEX subsidies, performance-based BTS payments, and integrated policies to improve transit ridership.
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