Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation in the Municipal Solid Waste Sector in Tangerang Regency: Integrating LMDI, FOD, and System Dynamics

Jumadiono Jumadiono; Lina Warlina; Sodikin Sodikin

doi:10.70716/reswara.v4i4.906

Authors

Jumadiono Master’s Study Program in Environmental Studies, Graduate School, Universitas Terbuka, South Tangerang, Indonesia Author
Lina Warlina Master’s Study Program in Environmental Studies, Graduate School, Universitas Terbuka, South Tangerang, Indonesia Author
Sodikin Master’s Study Program in Environmental Studies, Graduate School, Universitas Terbuka, South Tangerang, Indonesia Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.70716/reswara.v4i4.906

Keywords:

municipal solid waste, greenhouse gas emissions, system dynamics, LMDI, first order decay

Abstract

Municipal solid waste management contributes to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions, particularly methane from landfill and unmanaged disposal. This study integrates the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), First Order Decay (FOD), and system dynamics (SD) to identify historical drivers of MSW-related GHG emissions and evaluate long-term mitigation pathways in Tangerang Regency. LMDI decomposes emission changes into emission intensity, waste-treatment structure, waste-generation intensity, economic activity, and population effects, while FOD captures legacy methane from historical waste disposal. SD was then applied to simulate Business as Usual (BAU), Waste-to-Energy/WTE (S1), CH₄ recovery (S2), enhanced recycling (S3), and lower population growth (S4) scenarios through 2050. GHG emissions increased from 541,155.24 tCO₂e in 2019 to 648,953.80 tCO₂e in 2024. The increase was driven primarily by emission intensity and economic activity, while lower waste-generation intensity and changes in waste-treatment structure partially offset the increase. By 2050, CH₄ recovery (S2) yielded the largest reduction relative to BAU (47.02%), followed by recycling (S3) (9.71%), WTE (S1) (9.46%), and the lower-population-growth scenario (S4) (3.04%). These findings demonstrate that methane control and diversion toward controlled treatment pathways are more influential than isolated end-of-pipe interventions, highlighting the importance of an integrated low-carbon MSW strategy.

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