Assessment of Land Use Change Impacts on Design Flood Discharge in the Cakung Watershed Using Hydrological Modeling

Handika Putrawan; Dina P. A.  Hidayat

doi:10.70716/reswara.v4i4.763

Authors

Handika Putrawan Department of Civil Engineering and Planning, Universitas Trisakti, Jakarta, Indonesia Author
Dina P. A. Hidayat Department of Civil Engineering and Planning, Universitas Trisakti, Jakarta, Indonesia Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.70716/reswara.v4i4.763

Keywords:

HEC-HMS, peak discharge, land use, curve number, impervious area

Abstract

Land use land cover (LULC) change driven by urbanization in the Cakung Watershed, Jakarta, has significantly increased peak flood discharge. This study employed a quantitative approach using secondary data. LULC classification used the Random Forest algorithm in ArcGIS, applied to Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 Level 2 imagery, and the hydrological model was calibrated and validated using observed streamflow data. The watershed was divided into four sub-watersheds: Cakung Hulu–BKT, Buaran–BKT, Jatikramat–BKT, and Cakung Hilir. The study aimed to calibrate and validate the HEC-HMS model and to determine the effect of LULC change on flood discharge in the Cakung Watershed. The HEC-HMS simulation performed excellently during calibration (7 January 2024) and the first validation (11 April 2024), yielding NSE of 0.842–0.892, RSR of 0.30–0.40, and PBIAS of −1.06% to −0.78%. The second validation (4 August 2024) declined to a satisfactory level (NSE = 0.595, RSR = 0.60, PBIAS = −10.75%), yet the parameters remained reliable. LULC changes during 2000–2024 increased CN by 1%–4% and impervious area by 18%–182%, indicating reduced infiltration and expanded built-up areas, which raised design flood discharge across all sub-watersheds. Cakung Hilir produced the highest peak discharge (120.30 m³/s), while Cakung Hulu–BKT showed the largest increase (12.89%). The results showed that higher CN and impervious area values corresponded to greater flood discharge. Therefore, LULC change is a contributing factor to increased flood discharge in the Cakung Watershed.

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